Here’s some research from Christianity Today on the Decline of Mainline Denominations and the Impact on Evangelicals.
The main takeaway for me is that while mainline defectors first preference for relocation is in an evangelical church, evangelical defectors number one relocation spot is to become part of the rising “nones.” Surprising to no one should be the statistic that the number cause for the decline of both mainlines and evangelicals is the attrition due to aging.